302cj
Old Mossy Horns
Any updates on the track of this?
For the Weather gurus on here
- Thread starter bryguy
- Start date
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
News is Raleigh says probably a little frozen precip starting out tomorrow, then washed away by all of the warm rain moving in as temps will rise all day long.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Going to mostly be onset event for 2/3rds of the state, latest trends though do spread more light snow over us faster so Monday morning could be a huge mess all over the state, especially west of I 95. The models insist the amounts will be light, the moisture tap is from the west not south or east so the QPF is way lower than a system tapping the GOM or ATL, and they will eventually get tapped but by then temps should get above freezing for most of us. There is little doubt we all change to rain, you guys out there in the I 77 corridors and west have the best chance of getting several inches of snow and then a decent little ice storm before flipping over to rain late tomorrow afternoon....RDU should flip to rain by 2-4pm and PGV should flip around 11-12am. Again though this is a complicated system and a extra .25" of precip ( which could easily not be well modeled) before it changes over can be the difference between 1" of snow and ice and 4" of snow and ice given the cold air mass we have.
smith-n-stokes
Old Mossy Horns
I like your predictions/forecasts better than the TV weatherpeople. Keep it up!
Sent from wherever I was at the time...
Me too, would you mind sending me a PM each morning telling what's it's going to be like in Vance County?
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downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Looks like the snow is getting down to the ground earlier than forecast out west....still not heavy but with the ground cold soaked it wont take much to make roads really slippery.
smith-n-stokes
Old Mossy Horns
We have a heavy dusting of snow here in Stokes Co.
Sent from wherever I was at the time...
Sent from wherever I was at the time...
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Yep looking a little early with the snow there you guys might over perform, ratios are really high, typically around here we get heavy wet snow ( We weather nerds call it Carolina Concrete) and the ratio averages 8-10:1 so for every inch of rain we get 8-10" of snow, with the really cold dry air ratios increase a lot. You guys most likely are closer to 15-20:1 or even higher so for every .10" of "precip" you get 1.5-2" of snow so even though you might only have .25-30" of precip with those ratios instead of 1-3" you get 4-6" of really powdery snow...not saying you gonna get 4-6" just using it as a example of why you might end up with that much.
smith-n-stokes
Old Mossy Horns
It's coming down pretty good now. Fine powder snow!
Sent from wherever I was at the time...
Already an inch and a half here in the corner of stokes, forsyth and yadkin counties.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
yeah you might get 4-6", heck even more if the band holds up, the ratios are sick and this is a pretty rare snow for NC with temp profiles being what they are....this is more like a snow out in the midwest or GL......it will all by gone by tomorrow night though once the temps warm and we go all rain everywhere in NC
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The forecasters here weren't close, not even at 6pm.
EGrdneck
Guest
And I'm stuck loading out pigs in this junk....so far nothing in Rob. Co. Just cold as heck....we got 5 trucks going out at the farm so I'm hoping we can get done by midnight or 1am
lasttombstone
Kinder, Gentler LTS
Been snowing heavy in northern Granville since 8.