Tropical Threat Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
chef said:
Hey Downeast, should I cancel out myrtle beach weekend for next week? I am thinking no matter what, it is going to be a washout
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The crystal ball is cloudy hehe. Honestly man its a tough call, most models keep it right offshore maybe 100 miles or so, so it would be rainy and breezy and the ocean will be angry and huge, and even after it passes that will take days to settle down even if its a few hundred miles offshore and sunny the ocean is gonna be rough. The GFS/CMC both keep it just offshore but again it is going to take another 3-4 days before we have a good idea as to where all the parts are gonna be and those all affect where this is going to go. By Monday it should be better nailed down but even then with the angle it is approaching small changes in track can lead to huge changes in conditions at any given point on the beaches.....

Run this loop and you can track the cane up the coast...now if the modeled track shifts then so will this, Fri starts around 168 hrs or so on this particular loop it ends at 180 hrs so the storm would be just off Hatteras by then....this would be a rough track for the SE coast but typically the west side is the weak side so this track is better than one where the east side comes ashore somewhere....this is wave height in meters so 40 ft seas in the center and 10-15 on the beaches plus a little surge from the persistent onshore flow.....

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-US_eastcoast-
 
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Pirate96

Pirate96

Twelve Pointer
Willie said:
I'm waiting for the Pirate's report.
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I leave that to the professionals. They will tell you they can not say with any certainty what Hurricane Matthew will do.

The track is too far out to see what it will do middle to late next week in regards to NC or SC.
 
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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Recon just found a 138 knt surface wind so this is a Cat 5 when the NHC updates at 11 pm.....first Cat 5 in the Atlantic in maybe 8-10 years....hopefully this weakens some before it gets to Jamaica/Cuba
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
EGrdneck said:
Models have once again shifted closer to the coast
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Its so close now that even a small tiny change left of track when it gets up here would bring this thing in over eastern NC....the upside is if the storm parallels the coast that close from Florida up to NC its not going to be as strong or windy on the west side typically hugging the coast doesnt support strengthening etc...still a long time to watch and worry, the other main model the Euro wants to hook it east much further south and never threatens the east coast.
 

chef

Ten Pointer
downeastnc said:
Its so close now that even a small tiny change left of track when it gets up here would bring this thing in over eastern NC....the upside is if the storm parallels the coast that close from Florida up to NC its not going to be as strong or windy on the west side typically hugging the coast doesnt support strengthening etc...still a long time to watch and worry, the other main model the Euro wants to hook it east much further south and never threatens the east coast.
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come on europe! be more sciencey than us
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
chef said:
come on europe! be more sciencey than us
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Typically the euro model is the one to follow. Last year during Joaquin it was the ONLY model showing it moving east away from the Bahamas while many other models had it hitting NC. However this year it seems to be really struggling in the tropics. For a long time it had Mathew actually remaining a weak storm and it had it going into the GOM.

The key to the models is run to run consistency and right now the euro doesn't really have that on its side.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
oldest school said:
pulling for euro. Big Time. we do not need a hazel repeat.
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Well even the models that bring it close still have it recurving so the chances are this thing won't plow into the state like hazel. The ukmet model is really the only one showing a due northward motion. the UKM2 model has a Charleston landfall to just east of charlotte track but it is shouldn't be trusted since its a ridiculously far left solution.
 

EGrdneck

Guest
I am really concerned how the GFS has been consistent in its westerly track bringing Matthew right up the coast....maybe it sees something with that high pressure system idk...but at 930mb roughly that's a stout beast ...
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
EGrdneck said:
I am really concerned how the GFS has been consistent in its westerly track bringing Matthew right up the coast....maybe it sees something with that high pressure system idk...but at 930mb roughly that's a stout beast ...
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Yeah so far the gfs has been rock steady on this close approach. I certainly wouldn't rule it out but the op run is further west than its ensemble run.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
chef said:
come on europe! be more sciencey than us
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The Euro is hands down the best model on the planet right now, the US is working on a replacement or maybe we should call it a upgrade for the GFS, there have been several already the last few years for the GFS but they still dont do as well as the Euro at least on the larger scale.....the USA leads the way in mesoscale modeling, mostly as a result of all the tornado research programs and DOW radar studies really expanding our understanding of severe weather, the models designed for that are actually quite good and narrowing down threat areas for severe weather....they even do good with hurricanes once they get into well sampled air which usually means right at or after landfall.

The main difference the models have with Matthew is the Euro has another low pressure center east of it that creates a "weakness" in the ridge this allows Matthew to escape NE....remember the prevalent wind flow aloft north of the tropics is west to east so all storms want to turn poleward and eastward in the Atlantic basin...so storms are always looking for a way to do that....the GFS doesnt have this other low strong enough or west enough to effect Matthew thus the ridge stays in the way blocking Matthew from that NE turn until he is REALLY close to the east coast.

Matthew is under going a eyewall replacement cycle now so he will weaken and his eye will fade and a new one will form and it should be bigger and the storm should start to expand in size as it moves north and the ambient pressure differences allow wind field expansions. You shouldnt cancel that Myrtle Beach trip yet you might be fine if it does go as far east as the Euro and CMC models show it should be ok.
 
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oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
Shaggy said:
Well even the models that bring it close still have it recurving so the chances are this thing won't plow into the state like hazel. The ukmet model is really the only one showing a due northward motion. the UKM2 model has a Charleston landfall to just east of charlotte track but it is shouldn't be trusted since its a ridiculously far left solution.
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thank you shaggy. i just looked at a composite of all models and didnt see it as optimistically as you. i sense you know far more than me on the topic.

but we have been having way too much fun with "ridiculously far left solutions lately. " :)

everywhere.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
oldest school said:
thank you shaggy. i just looked at a composite of all models and didnt see it as optimistically as you. i sense you know far more than me on the topic.

but we have been having way too much fun with "ridiculously far left solutions lately. " :)

everywhere.
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Here is a cool website you can run the models yourself. It has lots of feature that allow you to pick regions so you can see how the players are setting up in the steering flow. You can select things on the bottom that allow you to view rainfall predictions from the models. It has the major models and all the hi-res models.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
 

chef

Ten Pointer
downeastnc said:
The Euro is hands down the best model on the planet right now, the US is working on a replacement or maybe we should call it a upgrade for the GFS, there have been several already the last few years for the GFS but they still dont do as well as the Euro at least on the larger scale.....the USA leads the way in mesoscale modeling, mostly as a result of all the tornado research programs and DOW radar studies really expanding our understanding of severe weather, the models designed for that are actually quite good and narrowing down threat areas for severe weather....they even do good with hurricanes once they get into well sampled air which usually means right at or after landfall.

The main difference the models have with Matthew is the Euro has another low pressure center east of it that creates a "weakness" in the ridge this allows Matthew to escape NE....remember the prevalent wind flow aloft north of the tropics is west to east so all storms want to turn poleward and eastward in the Atlantic basin...so storms are always looking for a way to do that....the GFS doesnt have this other low strong enough or west enough to effect Matthew thus the ridge stays in the way blocking Matthew from that NE turn until he is REALLY close to the east coast.

Matthew is under going a eyewall replacement cycle now so he will weaken and his eye will fade and a new one will form and it should be bigger and the storm should start to expand in size as it moves north and the ambient pressure differences allow wind field expansions. You shouldnt cancel that Myrtle Beach trip yet you might be fine if it does go as far east as the Euro and CMC models show it should be ok.
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thanks. i have found that this is the single best website for me to check major weather events.

i am going to wait until sunday or monday to make the call.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Ok run this loop first its the GFS and its the latest run and its no good, landfalls MHX/Lookout and rides up west of the OBX this would be very bad for the coast....even inland to say I 95.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...wind&runtime=2016100112&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=200

This is the CMC ( Canadian ) model its one of the "big 3" with the GFS and Euro.....run this loop it starts at the same time as the loop above and notice NE of the hurricane there is a little closed off low pressure this weakens the ridge and lets Matt follow it OTS....this seems to be the main difference if this wasnt there it would be further west like the GFS and what that low does or doesnt do will have a major impact on the future track of Matt...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...wind&runtime=2016100112&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=200
 
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chef

Ten Pointer
downeastnc said:
Ok run this loop first its the GFS and its the latest run and its no good, landfalls MHX/Lookout and rides up west of the OBX this would be very bad for the coast....even inland to say I 95.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...wind&runtime=2016100112&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=200

This is the CMC ( Canadian ) model its one of the "big 3" with the GFS and Euro.....run this loop it starts at the same time as the loop above and notice NE of the hurricane there is a little closed off low pressure this weakens the ridge and lets Matt follow it OTS....this seems to be the main difference if this wasnt there it would be further west like the GFS and what that low does or doesnt do will have a major impact on the future track of Matt...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...wind&runtime=2016100112&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=200
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Oh, Canada.....
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
chef said:
Oh, Canada.....
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One of the main biases of the Canadian model is it tend to turn even a strong sneeze into a low pressure system. It really overdoes those little lows like that all the time. If the Euro continues to show the low like the cmc then it gains some credibility but its gonna take a few days.

Is there a deadline on when you can cancel your trip and still get your money back?
 

chef

Ten Pointer
Shaggy said:
One of the main biases of the Canadian model is it tend to turn even a strong sneeze into a low pressure system. It really overdoes those little lows like that all the time. If the Euro continues to show the low like the cmc then it gains some credibility but its gonna take a few days.

Is there a deadline on when you can cancel your trip and still get your money back?
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i think it was 14 days, unless i can sweet talk them because of the weather. but it is only a deposit. i generally find that in life if you call and are nice to whomever is on the other line, they help you out.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
chef said:
i think it was 14 days, unless i can sweet talk them because of the weather. but it is only a deposit. i generally find that in life if you call and are nice to whomever is on the other line, they help you out.
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Euro just finished running and it had a significant shift to the west. Gonna be close if that model trends westward. Totally different interaction with the low to its east on this run. The low forms just southeast of Bermuda and moves east allowing Mathew to move more westerly. Then the low retrogrades back to the NW and opens a weakness to allow Mathew to move out to sea. Very weird interaction on the model run as the low to its east basically does a sideways motion like this......>.......to the east of Mathew. He gets a lot closer this run.
 

chef

Ten Pointer
Shaggy said:
Euro just finished running and it had a significant shift to the west. Gonna be close if that model trends westward. Totally different interaction with the low to its east on this run. The low forms just southeast of Bermuda and moves east allowing Mathew to move more westerly. Then the low retrogrades back to the NW and opens a weakness to allow Mathew to move out to sea. Very weird interaction on the model run as the low to its east basically does a sideways motion like this......>.......to the east of Mathew. He gets a lot closer this run.
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so are you saying the canadian model is starting to show signs of agreeing with the US model?
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
chef said:
so are you saying the canadian model is starting to show signs of agreeing with the US model?
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The euro is moving back westward versus its earlier run. The Canadian is still way east. The Euro model shifted westward by a couple hundred miles. A pretty significant jump. These models run several times a day and will change every run so its not so much what this run shows its the trend you want to watch for. This run of the euro it showed a stronger high pressure off the coast which shoved Mathew much further west before it recurves.
 
curdog

curdog

Ten Pointer
Contributor
I don't want a hurricane to hit down at the coast, but I'd like a little rain to make it to my house. I mowed the few high spots in the yard after not mowing for a month, and now I'm going to have black boogers for a week. The dust about choked me.
 
spinnerbaitor48

spinnerbaitor48

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
We left punta cana, Dominican republic this afternoon about 230 or so.....we had a lot of wind and big surf the prev two days, but not bad today....looks like Jamaica is gonna get hammered though...storm stayed about 250 to 300 miles south of us thank goodness....prevented our fishing trip, but not our great time
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Models shifted west quite a bit overnight and definitely puts eastern NC coastal areas at risk for a hurricane. The trough energy is coming into the northwest tonight and tomorrow and they are doing balloon releases starting today up and down the east coast so that will start to help sort this out.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The model trends overnight where bad news for eastern NC and especially the OBX, the fact that the models are slowly coming into agreement and that agreement brings it on or over eastern NC is not a good thing, still the timing has to thread a needle to get this thing in here and until the models sample the storm entering the NW USA big changes are possible...
 
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