downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Just thought I would get a thread like this going since I know some of us are weather geeks and follow this stuff and many of us live in areas prone to damage from TS's......so since we are getting into the meat of the season for these systems and the fact that the models are hinting at one possible threatening the SE in 10-12 days I figure it would be good info to track.
Basically the models have something forming off the SE at the end of this heat ridge we are in right now, which unfortunately will last another 7-10 days.....once that western trough breaks and we get another ridge out west the door will be open so to speak for a threat to the east coast. Just to stress this at this time is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE based on models but the overall setup does support something interesting in the tropics perhaps threatening the east coast around Aug 3-7th ( although that could change obviously)
Here is a run of the GFS showing a actual landfall of a tropical system Aug 5th, the next run doesnt have this it has a weaker low off SC but moving this way again these runs will change quite a bit between now and then, at this point the focus isnt on the strength but rather is the storm there.... if every run has a storm even if they vary in location and strength it gives us a good idea that storm will indeed form.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal..._frzn&runtime=2016072406&fh=306&xpos=0&ypos=0
Basically the models have something forming off the SE at the end of this heat ridge we are in right now, which unfortunately will last another 7-10 days.....once that western trough breaks and we get another ridge out west the door will be open so to speak for a threat to the east coast. Just to stress this at this time is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE based on models but the overall setup does support something interesting in the tropics perhaps threatening the east coast around Aug 3-7th ( although that could change obviously)
Here is a run of the GFS showing a actual landfall of a tropical system Aug 5th, the next run doesnt have this it has a weaker low off SC but moving this way again these runs will change quite a bit between now and then, at this point the focus isnt on the strength but rather is the storm there.... if every run has a storm even if they vary in location and strength it gives us a good idea that storm will indeed form.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal..._frzn&runtime=2016072406&fh=306&xpos=0&ypos=0
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