Tropical Threat Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Just thought I would get a thread like this going since I know some of us are weather geeks and follow this stuff and many of us live in areas prone to damage from TS's......so since we are getting into the meat of the season for these systems and the fact that the models are hinting at one possible threatening the SE in 10-12 days I figure it would be good info to track.

Basically the models have something forming off the SE at the end of this heat ridge we are in right now, which unfortunately will last another 7-10 days.....once that western trough breaks and we get another ridge out west the door will be open so to speak for a threat to the east coast. Just to stress this at this time is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE based on models but the overall setup does support something interesting in the tropics perhaps threatening the east coast around Aug 3-7th ( although that could change obviously)

Here is a run of the GFS showing a actual landfall of a tropical system Aug 5th, the next run doesnt have this it has a weaker low off SC but moving this way again these runs will change quite a bit between now and then, at this point the focus isnt on the strength but rather is the storm there.... if every run has a storm even if they vary in location and strength it gives us a good idea that storm will indeed form.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal..._frzn&runtime=2016072406&fh=306&xpos=0&ypos=0
 
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EGrdneck

Guest
I'm kinda leaning on it being a fairly active year for us both tropical and snow wise....been too dang hot
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I'm kinda leaning on it being a fairly active year for us both tropical and snow wise....been too dang hot

The US is overdue for a hurricane strike, and even more overdue for a Cat 3 or better hit....if the longer range modeling is right we may return to a similar pattern to the beginning of summer, this would bring the chances of a "homegrown" system from the Bahamas way up.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
I give little weight to any prediction of something in 12 days.

Yeah the models are pretty bad on details much past 4-5 days. They are good for overall pattern setups in the long range but never details. The models have been hinting at something in the atlantic off and on now for a few days. We'll have to see if anything can develop.
 

skydog

Guest
I can't handle much more storm activity this year. We've been hit by a few real bad thunderstorms (60+ mph straight line winds) over the last month that have taken two big trees around our house...one of which landed on our screen porch. Lost power for three days from another storm last week. I'm praying for a quiet hurricane season
 

kahunter

Eight Pointer
That is the last thing we need in eastern NC. We have gone from abnormally cool to abnormally wet to extreme heat. Put a hurricane on the back of this and its gonna be ugly.
 

Larry R

Old Mossy Horns
Dang it doesn't look good. I've booked for a trip to the Dominican Republic last week of Aug and first week of Sept. You weather guys get busy and turn these storms off. LOL. But seriously we sure do need some rain, getting might dry here.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Dang it doesn't look good. I've booked for a trip to the Dominican Republic last week of Aug and first week of Sept. You weather guys get busy and turn these storms off. LOL. But seriously we sure do need some rain, getting might dry here.

Yikes yeah thats pretty much primetime for TC's, good news is we weather geeks nickname that island Shreddinola since it has high mts and the storms that hit it tend to get torn up pretty bad.....this of course doesnt help the folks on the island itself....its location has saved the US from many a strike of serious storms by degrading them or outright killing them....I will be able to give ya a heads up though starting a week before you leave the models will be able to sniff a threat out fairly well in that range....
 

Larry R

Old Mossy Horns
Please make it a good two weeks. Worst part is that we will be on the east side of the island right on the water (Punta Cana) not good. LOL.
 

bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
Interesting that both waves are essentially Cape Verde in origin. It's a little early for that area to be cranking up. That could not be a good sign if we have an active period for that area.


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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Interesting that both waves are essentially Cape Verde in origin. It's a little early for that area to be cranking up. That could not be a good sign if we have an active period for that area.


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If 96L goes it will be pretty far east for this time of year...Bertha in 96 was a Cape Verde storm and she hit here in mid July, but it is rare for them to form out there but if they do they get pretty far west due to the Bermuda ridge usually being strong at high summer......97L is smack in the middle of the MDR so if it goes its right where we would be looking for a storm to pop in late July into early Aug....but really after another 10 days or so the numbers and frequencies go way up and its game on. Both look kinda meh this morning I really thought 96L was gonna go it had that "look" but its mixing up with the SAL layer now so it will be a few days before it can really fire storms again, if it makes it it will be a storm I think.
 
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bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
If 96L goes it will be pretty far east for this time of year...Bertha in 96 was a Cape Verde storm and she hit here in mid July, but it is rare for them to form out there but if they do they get pretty far west due to the Bermuda ridge usually being strong at high summer......97L is smack in the middle of the MDR so if it goes its right where we would be looking for a storm to pop in late July into early Aug....but really after another 10 days or so the numbers and frequencies go way up and its game on. Both look kinda meh this morning I really thought 96L was gonna go it had that "look" but its mixing up with the SAL layer now so it will be a few days before it can really fire storms again, if it makes it it will be a storm I think.

Yeah the 'slot' so to speak for us is a storm that either just stays offshore of the Caribbean islands or goes over the eastern Bahamas. Man I don't mind tropical systems, I just don't like the major storms that we have missed the last few years. I remember Fran and Floyd like they were yesterday and hope I never see anything like either one of those in my life.


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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yeah the 'slot' so to speak for us is a storm that either just stays offshore of the Caribbean islands or goes over the eastern Bahamas. Man I don't mind tropical systems, I just don't like the major storms that we have missed the last few years. I remember Fran and Floyd like they were yesterday and hope I never see anything like either one of those in my life.


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Yeah the US is way overdue for a major cane landfall.....the overall setup puts the SE coast and maybe Fl in the highest risk zones for a landfall this year....the ridge off the east coast is in a position that would allow a NW track into the SE a la Fran/Hugo....the timing will be the issue as always, whatever weakness causes the storm to turn up to begin with has to be gone and replaced by the rebuilding ridge in time to push them in. Thats how we get the strong storms....otherwise they are usually sheared out messes riding the weakness....turning N to NE as they approach. Also the TUTT that has been a semi permanent feature north of the islands the last few seasons isnt there this year....so no shear to smack them down if they do form in the MDR, overall the setup is there for several solid threats to the SE this season.....expect the next 8 weeks to be interesting....wouldnt be surprised to see the NC coast under a hurricane warning or two this year at all.
 

country

Ten Pointer
Been thinking we are due one also. That is why when my backup generator took a nosedive last winter I started saving for a permanent generator for the house. Just finished getting it installed last week...
 

DevilDog

Spike
I check the NHC website daily to stay on top of things. This one is getting close to slipping into the Gulf...80% chance.

Tropics.jpg
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Should be TS Earl by this time tomorrow. Sucks for the folks vacationing in the Yuke down towards Belize and maybe even Jamaica and Cancun.
 
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Scalf

Eight Pointer
There's another storm off the coast of Africa that looks interesting. Im betting it will turn into an invest real soon.
 

DevilDog

Spike
Been a great year so far, which has me concerned. I hope August does not turn into a crazy month of storms.
 

Scalf

Eight Pointer
Nvm I believe that's 96L I was seeing. They completely stopped talking about that one as soon as 97L popped up
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
TS Howard is in the Pacific and headed towards Hawaii.

Which is odd, tropical storms hitting Hawaii is pretty rare, but the last few years have been way above normal for them in the TS dept....

What was 96L looks better tonight although it hasn't been a invest for several days now.....its also really far south.....

Last time around Hurricane Earl made a run at NC and gave the OBX a beating.....
 
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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
You guys in the foothills and the mts need to watch for a lot of rain this week, a decently strong low has formed over south GA and will hang out around the NE GOM and pump tons of rain up your way, it will be borderline tropical, add to that a possible tropical low off the SE coast east of the area moving this way later in the week and it could spell trouble for some.
 
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